Evolution Cycles for Investment
- Stilianos Vidalis
- Apr 7
- 2 min read
Straus and Howe [1] describe each evolution cycle as lasting circa 21 years. They call these 'turnings'. Four 'turnings' make up a full cycle of circa 85 years which the authors term as a 'saeculum', after the Latin word meaning both "a long human life" and "a natural century".
Generational change drives the cycle of turnings and determines its frequency. As each generation ages into the next life phase (and a new social role) society's mood and behavior fundamentally change, giving rise to a new 'turning'. Therefore, a symbiotic relationship exists between historical events and generational personas. Historical events shape generations in childhood and young adulthood; then, as parents and leaders in midlife and old age, generations in turn shape history.
At the heart of Strauss and Howe's ideas is a basic alternation between two different types of eras, Crises and Awakenings. Both of these are defining eras in which people observe that historic events are radically altering their social environment. Crises are periods marked by major secular upheaval, when society focuses on reorganizing the outer world of institutions and public behavior. Awakenings are periods marked by cultural or religious renewal when society focuses on changing the inner world of values and private behavior.
Integral to Strauss and Howe’s thesis is the concept of the saeculum. What happens to society if/when we slow aging? T cells in the body can be reprogrammed to slow down and even reverse aging. What if people never grow old into a crisis cycle? One could argue that this would not be a problem. Apropos, without a crisis, there would be no high and no awakening. If we slow aging, which will probably result in a population decline, will we also slow the evolution of society? Indeed, the secular stagnation hypothesis, first proposed by Hansen (1939) who predicted that downward trends in population growth would lead to declines in investment, and through this act as a drag on growth.
In 2025, one could argue we are well and truly a long way into a Crisis era. At SV Holdings, we have already started planning for the next Awakening era. Have you?
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